U.S. tariff hikes weighed on performance in the second half of the year; the sector enters 2026 amid trade reconfiguration and new market dynamics
The year begins in a denser and more technically complex business environment, shaped by shifts in global geopolitics, new trade dynamics, and structural pressures across global production chains.
From January to December 2025, Brazilian exports of furniture and mattresses totaled US$ 769.3 million, representing 0.8% growth compared to 2024.
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 644.018 | 628.196 | 937.985 | 830.709 | 735.376 | 763.052 | 769.317 |
| Imports | 224.775 | 207.211 | 262.404 | 191.889 | 234.423 | 298.346 | 315.144 |
| Trade Balance | 419.242 | 420.985 | 675.581 | 638.819 | 500.954 | 464.705 | 454.173 |
Source: Comexstat. Elaboration IEMI
Note: Brazilian exports and imports
Note: Includes United States
Despite the positive result, performance fell well below initial expectations, which were around +2.5%, confirming a loss of momentum toward the end of the year:
• January to October: +2.1%
• January to November: +1.5%
• January to December: +0.8%
The data point to a slowdown following the end of shipment front-loading observed at the beginning of the second half of the year — prior to the entry into force of the U.S. “tariff hike” — also signaling the exhaustion of short-term stimuli, increased caution in trade flows, and the need for a more structured internationalization strategy.
Tariff Hikes and the Decline in Exports to the United States
In this context, the U.S. market remains a critical variable. ABIMÓVEL (Brazilian Furniture Industry Association) is closely monitoring the imminent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of tariffs of up to 50% applied to Brazilian imports, including furniture products.
The sector reaches this moment after a year of forced adjustment, marked by contract disruptions, production shutdowns, layoffs, inventory accumulation, and financial restructuring driven by the tariff measures.
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 224.636 | 250.567 | 334.531 | 325.687 | 234.325 | 225.880 | 181.048 |
| Imports | 7.431 | 5.586 | 6.600 | 5.745 | 5.171 | 5.243 | 5.068 |
| Trade Balance | 217.205 | 244.981 | 327.931 | 319.942 | 229.153 | 220.637 | 175.979 |
Source: Comexstat. Elaboration IEMI
Note: Brazilian exports and imports
As a result, although the United States remains the main destination for Brazilian furniture exports, its share fell significantly in 2025, closing the year at 23.5% of total shipments, after years operating near or above 30%.
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of Exports | 34,9% | 39,9% | 35,7% | 39,2% | 31,9% | 29,6% | 23,5% |
| Share of Imports | 3,3% | 2,7% | 2,5% | 3,0% | 2,2% | 1,8% | 1,6% |
| Share of Trade Balance | 51,8% | 58,2% | 48,5% | 50,1% | 45,7% | 47,5% | 38,7% |
Source: Comexstat. Elaboration IEMI
An important asymmetry must also be highlighted: while Brazil accounts for less than 1% of total U.S. furniture imports (posing no risk to the American industry), for many Brazilian companies the U.S. market represents the majority of their exports, with cases ranging from 30% to 100%.
In the short term, there is a positive signal: the U.S. government has decided to postpone to January 2027 the increase in surcharges on certain wood products and derivatives, including sawn timber, wood panels, upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom vanities. As a result, throughout 2026, tariffs between 10% and 25% remain in force for most of these categories.
Current tariff framework:
The postponement temporarily reduces the risk of a new tariff shock, but it does not represent a normalization of market access conditions. The possibility of future higher tariffs remains conditional on both the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling and the progress of diplomatic negotiations between Brazil and the United States.
In this context, ABIMÓVEL, in partnership with BMJ Consultores Associados, under the leadership of Dr. Welber Barral, has been providing technical support to the Brazilian Federal Government and engaging in institutional dialogue with Washington to pursue structured actions aimed at excluding the furniture sector from the tariffs or, at minimum, reducing them to levels below 15%.
This situation also reinforces the perception of risk concentration in a single market, keeping active prospecting efforts focused on South America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, even in a more favorable U.S. scenario.
Another concern is that the U.S. move may set precedents for similar measures by other countries, as already seen with Mexico, increasing restrictions on international trade in industrial goods and affecting, in the short and medium term, Brazil’s ability to redirect exports.
“Regardless of the Supreme Court of the United States’ decision, foreign trade in the sector is already operating under a new paradigm: more fragmented, more regulated, and less predictable. The eventual removal of tariffs may accelerate stabilization, but it will not eliminate the need for market diversification, stronger industrial competitiveness, and coordination between trade, economic, and industrial policies,” emphasizes Cândida Cervieri, Executive Director of ABIMÓVEL and Manager of the Brazilian Furniture Project, in partnership with ApexBrasil (Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency).
European Union and the Mercosur–EU Agreement
On the external front, the Mercosur–European Union Agreement stands out as one of the most relevant developments in international trade today, with the potential to expand Brazil’s access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets for furniture. After more than 25 years of negotiations, the agreement was officially signed on January 17, 2026, involving two blocs that together represent around 720 million consumers and a combined GDP of over US$ 22 trillion.
For the Brazilian furniture industry, the agreement takes on strategic importance in the context of international repositioning. In 2025, the European Union accounted for 9.3% of Brazilian furniture and mattress exports, on a clear upward trajectory.
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 55.275 | 51.356 | 67.890 | 71.752 | 66.180 | 60.519 | 71.249 |
| Imports | 39.446 | 33.815 | 32.712 | 34.019 | 41.763 | 46.606 | 57.340 |
| Trade Balance | 15.829 | 17.542 | 35.178 | 37.733 | 24.417 | 13.913 | 13.909 |
Source: Comexstat. Elaboration IEMI
Note: Brazilian exports and imports
Note: Includes European Union
With the agreement, preliminary studies by ABIMÓVEL and IEMI – Market Intelligence indicate the potential for additional growth of up to 20% in the very first year of implementation.
| Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of Exports | 8,6% | 8,2% | 7,2% | 8,6% | 9,0% | 7,9% | 9,3% |
| Share of Imports | 17,5% | 16,3% | 12,5% | 17,7% | 17,8% | 15,6% | 18,2% |
| Share of Trade Balance | 3,8% | 4,2% | 5,2% | 5,9% | 4,9% | 3,0% | 3,1% |
Source: Comexstat. Elaboration IEMI
Note: Brazilian exports and imports
Note: Includes European Union
However, the process faces institutional hurdles: the European Parliament has referred the agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union for legal review, suspending the final vote and potentially delaying ratification for up to 24 months.
An industry in transformation
Against this backdrop, 2026 opens a new phase of strategic organization for Brazil’s furniture sector. The combination of adjustments in the international environment and reduced friction in the domestic market shifts the focus of companies toward a more cautious, structured, and sustainable growth model.
FURNITURE: OUR BUSINESS!
ABIMÓVEL – Brazilian Furniture Industry Association
Press Office: press@abimovel.com | +55 (14) 99156-0238
